Inflation and candidate choices drove Republican losses in midterms
New polling data shows that economic frustration and specific endorsements outweighed partisan loyalty for many voters on Election Day.
By Luca Harrison ·
Inflation emerged as the primary driver of the 2026 midterm results, with new polling data indicating that high costs for groceries and gas directly influenced voter decisions across all 50 states. The AP Voter Poll reveals that while Democrats secured control of the House and Senate, their victory was not a blanket endorsement of the party but rather a specific rejection of Republican performance on the economy.
The path to this result began with President Donald Trump’s failure to lower prices, a promise made during the 2024 campaign. Instead, inflation worsened, a reality that voters noted in their daily expenses at grocery stores and gas stations. This economic pressure affected even Republican strongholds. In Texas, roughly two in 10 voters reported severe hardship from inflation, and about three-quarters of that group voted for Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico. Talarico also won a majority of voters who reported moderate hardship.
Nationally, about two-thirds of voters said Trump’s policies, including his tariffs and the war in Iran, made the economy worse. Of those voters, approximately 8 in 10 backed the Democratic candidate in their local House race. This sentiment suggests that the financial strain on households was a more decisive factor than general partisan affiliation.
The selection of candidates also played a major role in the outcome. Trump endorsed several Republicans who struggled with perceived flaws. In South Carolina, he supported Darline Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham. About 6 in 10 voters in that race said she lacked the necessary experience. In Texas, Trump backed Attorney General Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn. Paxton had been impeached but not convicted, and about two-thirds of Texas voters said he lacked the character required for the Senate seat.
In North Carolina, about 6 in 10 voters described Republican Senate nominee Michael Whatley as too supportive of Trump. That state’s voters chose Democrat Roy Cooper for the seat. These results indicate that Trump’s emphasis on loyalty sometimes highlighted candidate weaknesses, putting previously safe Republican areas at risk.
Voters also expressed dissatisfaction with the level of oversight provided by Congress. About 7 in 10 respondents, including 4 in 10 Republicans, stated that Congress was not doing enough to check the president’s power. This view reflects frustration with a Republican-controlled legislature that allowed the administration to implement sweeping changes, such as federal workforce layoffs and new tariffs, with minimal objection.
Despite the Democratic win, the party did not see a surge in overall popularity. Only about half of voters held a favorable view of Democrats, a number only slightly higher than the 4 in 10 who viewed Republicans positively. Many voters who supported Democrats did so because they wanted change rather than because they favored the party. In Maine, voters prioritizing “needed change” chose Democrat Troy Jackson for Senate, while those prioritizing experience chose Republican incumbent Susan Collins.
The poll, conducted from late October through early November, highlights a electorate that is divided and skeptical of both major parties. While Democrats hold a slim edge on key issues, about 7 in 10 voters believe Congress must now act more aggressively to provide checks and balances against the presidency.
