35%: Trump’s Approval Rating Sets Stage for High-Stakes Midterms

President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 35%, according to an October poll by the Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That figure represents a decline from the 42% approval he held shortly after taking office. The low score provides a backdrop for Tuesday’s midterm elections, where Americans will decide which party controls the U.S. House and Senate.

Democrats need to flip four Senate seats and three House seats to take control of Congress. Such a shift would give them a tool to challenge Trump’s agenda during the final two years of his term. The contest is centered on states Trump previously won by wide margins, including Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas for the Senate. House battlegrounds are spread across the nation.

Mid-decade redistricting altered the boundaries of approximately one-third of congressional districts. An AP analysis found that while individual districts saw major shifts in partisanship and demographics, the national map did not move significantly toward either party. Millions of voters will cast ballots in these newly drawn districts. The changes create an uncertain environment for candidates attempting to gauge their electoral strength.

In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed seeks to become the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate. His opponent, Republican Mike Rogers, aims to be the first member of his party to win a Michigan Senate race in over 30 years. The race to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters is a key factor in determining Senate control. El-Sayed has called Rogers a puppet for Trump, while Rogers has cited El-Sayed’s ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. Trump has described El-Sayed as a jihadist.

Economic concerns are driving voter sentiment. Annual inflation is currently 3.7%, up from 3% at the start of Trump’s second term. Tariffs and a war with Iran have contributed to higher oil, gasoline, and diesel prices. Consumer sentiment is lower than during recent recessions, even as the unemployment rate sits at 4.2%. Voters who previously punished Democrats for high inflation are now scrutinizing the Republican record on prices.

Immigration has become a more complex issue for the GOP. While illegal border crossings have dropped to near zero, enforcement actions in the interior have generated controversy. Two citizen protesters were shot and killed by immigration agents during raids in Minneapolis. Polls indicate more voters now oppose Trump on immigration than support him. The party fears it will lose ground in immigrant-heavy areas from New Jersey to Florida to Texas.

Iowa presents a unique opportunity for Democrats, as the top of the ticket is up for grabs for the first time since 1968. Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds and Sen. Joni Ernst are not running for reelection. Democrat Rob Sand, the state auditor, faces Republican Zach Lahn for governor. In the Senate race, Democrat Josh Turek competes against Republican Ashley Hinson, who is endorsed by Trump. Turek received an endorsement from former President Barack Obama.

The Navajo Nation has changed five polling locations due to flooding in the region. The tribe, which has more than 298,000 members, moved two locations in Arizona and three in New Mexico. Rivers in the area have overflowed their banks since October, forcing some residents to evacuate. The changes affect how voters cast ballots on Election Day.

A federal judge in Washington, D.C., ruled that the Trump administration must stop sending lists of alleged noncitizen voters to election officials in California and Washington state. Judge Tanya Chutkan said the transmissions could confuse voters and election officials during the midterms. States and voting rights groups have noted errors in the lists. This decision is part of a series of court losses for the administration in its efforts to expand federal authority over state-run elections.

South Carolina Democrats are hopeful after the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham, which led to a special primary. Darline Graham, his sister, won the Republican nomination. Democratic nominee Annie Andrews is running to break a 20-year drought in statewide races. However, many supporters acknowledge the state may not yet be ready to go blue, despite Democratic gains in neighboring North Carolina and Georgia. Trump has campaigned twice for Graham in the state.

In Georgia, billionaire businessman Rick Jackson faces Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor. If Bottoms wins, she would become Georgia’s first Black governor and the first Black woman elected governor in the United States. Jackson pledged to govern like Trump with a Southern tone. Republicans have won every Georgia governor’s election since 2002.