Inflation and loyalty drove GOP defeat
Polling data reveals that high costs and weak candidate choices outweighed party brand loyalty in the 2026 midterms.
By Luka Evans ·
Two-thirds of voters nationwide said President Trump’s policies worsened the economy, a finding that explains the Republican losses in Tuesday’s elections. The AP Voter Poll, which surveyed registered voters in all 50 states, shows that economic pain was the primary driver behind the shift in power.
Inflation remained the central issue for many households. In Texas, roughly 20% of voters reported severe financial hardship due to rising costs. Among this group, about three-quarters supported Democratic candidate James Talarico for the Senate. Similar patterns appeared across the country, with voters who expressed high concern about grocery and gas prices overwhelmingly backing Democratic candidates in House races.
The president’s endorsement choices also damaged the GOP ticket. Many voters felt Trump prioritized loyalty over competence. In South Carolina, Darline Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, filled the vacancy. About 60% of voters in that race said she lacked the necessary experience for the seat. In Texas, Ken Paxton, a scandal-ridden attorney general, drew about two-thirds of voters who said he lacked the character to serve as senator, despite Trump’s support.
Perceptions of corruption played a larger role than expected. More than half of national voters identified government corruption as a crucial factor in their congressional choice. This outweighed concerns about the cost of living for many respondents. The poll indicated that voters viewed Trump as focused on his own wealth, citing his meme coin earnings and the construction of a White House ballroom funded by corporate donations.
The results present a complex picture for the new Democratic majority. While 70% of voters said Congress failed to provide adequate checks on the presidency, the party does not command broad enthusiasm. Only about half of voters hold a favorable view of the Democratic Party. In Maine, voters chose Democrat Troy Jackson over incumbent Susan Collins, driven by a desire for change rather than deep party loyalty.
The survey was conducted by SSRS for The Associated Press and its media partners from October 19 to November 3. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is plus or minus 0.6 percentage points.
