Trump's Midterm Influence: Rallies, Fraud Claims, and the Approval Gap

President Donald Trump is in the middle of his second term on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with voters deciding who will control Congress for his final two years. The Associated Press describes this election as a referendum on the president's performance, noting that voters are struggling with high prices and are angry over an unpopular war with Iran. While the president is not on the ballot in most states, his presence is felt throughout the race. He has held dozens of rallies across the country, ending his recent schedule in Salina, Kansas, where he told supporters, "I really want you to pretend I'm on the ballot."

Polling data and NORC shows that 35 percent of U.S. Adults approve of Trump's job performance. His approval rating on the economy is lower, at 25 percent. Approximately seven in ten adults say the country is heading in the wrong direction, and most of those respondents blame the president for high prices. These numbers suggest a challenging environment for Republican candidates who are often associated with the president's policies. However, some voters remain loyal. Mark Barker, a voter in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, said, "I've just been following Trump the whole time. I really think he's doing an awesome job."

Despite the president's active role, many Republican candidates have kept their distance from him during the campaign. This strategy appears to be a response to his low approval ratings and the ongoing economic concerns that dominate the electorate. James Moore, a 57-year-old librarian in Raleigh, North Carolina, highlighted these economic pressures said. Moore stated, "I'm paying more taxes. I'm paying more for my healthcare. I'm paying more for everything." This sentiment is echoed in the broader mood of the election, where cost of living is a central issue for both parties.

The president has also continued to make claims about voting fraud, including the assertion that noncitizens vote in large numbers. His administration has filed lawsuits in Alaska and California related to election certification and voter eligibility. A federal judge temporarily barred the administration from carrying out a plan to prevent noncitizen voting on Monday, citing concerns that it might disenfranchise eligible voters. In California, a judge ordered the administration to stop demanding that election officials segregate ballots cast by people on lists of suspected noncitizens. Democrats have expressed fear that these actions could lead to interference and intimidation of local election officials.

Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters emphasized the importance of voter turnout said. He said, "Everything depends on turnout. If we turn out our voters, we win, and that's what we've been planning for." On the other side, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene noted, "The American people are angry. They want change." Both parties are aware that the margin of victory in several key races could be determined by a small number of seats. The Associated Press notes that one or two seats could tip the balance of power in either chamber of Congress.

Money is playing a significant role in the 2026 elections, which are likely to be the most expensive in history. Republican committees have outraised and outspent Democratic committees, aided by Trump-affiliated groups and Elon Musk. However, at the candidate level, Democrats have outraised their opponents. According to an Associated Press analysis of AdImpact data, 88.1 percent of Republican general election TV ad spending went to states and districts that Trump won in 2024. This included more than $850 million in states where he won by ten points or more. This spending pattern suggests that Republicans are focusing their resources on states where they have a strong base of support.

The stakes of this election are high for both parties. If Democrats win control of even one chamber, investigations and possible impeachment proceedings are likely. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has outlined a 100-day agenda focused on the cost of living and oversight if he becomes speaker. A strong Democratic performance could also boost potential 2028 presidential candidates such as Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, and Pete Buttigieg. For Republicans, the goal is to beat the typical midterm pattern where a president's party loses seats. They have used redistricting to their advantage, but new district maps in states like Florida may not vote as drawn.

Voters have already shown high engagement in this election. More than 57 million people had voted as of Monday, surpassing early vote totals from four years ago in many closely watched states. The U.S. Postal Service has added hours, staff, and special lines to ensure that mail ballots are counted on time. This high level of early voting indicates that voters are motivated to make their voices heard. The election is not just about who controls Congress but also about the direction of the country for the next two years of the Trump administration.

Wall Street is also watching the results closely. Reuters reports that the outcome could add to investor concerns about AI spending and debt ceiling negotiations. The election results will have implications for policy decisions that affect the economy. As polls open across the country, voters are heading to the polls to cast their ballots. The day will determine the balance of power in the U.S. Government and the policy direction of the nation in the final two years of the current presidential term.