Midterm Voters Weigh Bill's Costs Against Cuts
Candidates on both sides are using the 2025 tax law to define their campaigns, with Democrats focusing on healthcare reductions and Republicans promoting tax breaks.
By Luca Harrison ·
President Donald Trump campaigned on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in Corpus Christi, Texas, on Tuesday, calling it the largest tax cut in American history. The law, signed in July 2025, provides tax breaks while reducing funding for specific social service programs. Candidates across the country are now framing the 2026 midterm race around these provisions.
Republican officials are pushing the tax relief aspects of the legislation. Rep. Derrick Van Order, a Wisconsin Republican, told the GOP convention in September that many voters are unaware of specific exemptions, such as the lack of tax on tips and overtime. He argued that the law is already providing tangible benefits to the general public. This messaging aims to connect the bill’s financial incentives to voter retention for the party.
Democrats are countering by emphasizing the law’s impact on high-income earners. James Talarico, the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate in Texas, proposed reversing tax breaks for the top 1% of earners in an August interview. He suggested using the recovered $1 trillion to create a cost-of-living tax adjustment for the middle class. Talarico positioned this as a policy that directly benefits Texas residents.
Voters who depend on social services are reporting changes in their benefits. Amber Mader, a disabled voter in Arkansas who relies on Medicaid and Social Security Disability, said her home health care nursing and transportation services have been reduced since the law passed. Mader stated that she will not see a single cent in benefit from the tax cuts while dealing with daily disruptions to essential services. She said these changes are influencing her candidate selection.
Experts suggest the law’s financial impact varies by income level and timeframe. Elena Patel, co-director of the Urban Brookings Tax Policy Center, noted that tax policy is not a direct tool for solving immediate affordability issues. She observed that early changes benefited middle and lower-class families, but she predicts that over time, the benefits will become more apparent for high-income taxpayers. Dr. Todd Belt, a professor at George Washington University, added that affordability remains the primary concern for voters, outweighing the effect of the tax cuts.
The law includes specific cuts to Medicaid and other policy changes that are reshaping the political conversation. While Republicans highlight the tax exemptions, Democrats and some voters are focusing on the reductions in healthcare and social services. The 2026 election cycle will test which of these aspects resonates more with the electorate as candidates continue to debate the bill’s legacy.
