Lula's 50-Point Comeback Disrupts Global Right-Wing Momentum
Brazil’s president defeated Jair Bolsonaro in a runoff, prompting leaders in Spain, France, and India to declare a resurgence of center-left politics.
By Luka Evans ·
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential runoff on Sunday, defeating Jair Bolsonaro and defying prediction markets that favored the challenger. The center-left incumbent had seemed unlikely to survive the final two weeks of the campaign, but he mobilized tens of thousands of street supporters and millions of new voters who had not backed him in the first round. His victory marked a sharp reversal for the global right, which had gained ground in recent years under leaders such as Donald Trump, Narendra Modi, and Viktor Orbán.
The result inspired immediate comparisons across continents. Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s center-left prime minister, declared that the Brazilian outcome signaled a comeback for global progressivism. He has called a snap election in the coming weeks against an emboldened right. Dominique de Villepin, a former French prime minister, described Lula’s win as a major signal of hope for France, where the far right is favored to win power in next year’s presidential elections. Anish Gawande, a national spokesperson for an Indian opposition party, noted that Lula’s ability to assemble a diverse coalition offered a model for challenging Prime Minister Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party.
Gawande pointed to the Gen Z uprising in India, which has rocked Modi’s rule with rolling protests in New Delhi and other cities. He stated that the demonstrations revived space for dissent amid anger over a failing job economy and an autocratic political system that removed more than 130 million people from voter rolls on dubious grounds. Gawande posted on Instagram that if the shift happened in Brazil, it could happen in India. He cited Lula’s strategy of crafting solidarities between movements as a template for a rainbow coalition capable of taking on the BJP.
In Serbia, a similar dynamic played out this week when President Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat to a student-backed slate. The Student List outperformed Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party in the election, ending his effective rule since 2012. The students had been protesting since 2024, initially over the deadly collapse of a canopy in Novi Sad, which sparked a revolt against state corruption. They now aim to reinforce the rule of law and purge state institutions of those who enabled autocratic capture. Their success mirrors the ouster of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán earlier this year, leaving the White House without two key symbolic allies in its right-wing culture war.
Lula’s victory also blocked an advance of the right across Latin America, where left-leaning governments had fallen in rapid succession over the past two years. It thwarted Bolsonaro’s project of judicial overhaul and the potential alignment of Brazil’s foreign policy with Trump’s hemispheric agenda. Bolsonaro briefly claimed the result was illegitimate before right-wing heads of state in South America recognized Lula’s win. On Wednesday, Bolsonaro flew to Miami after leaving Brazil. He is under investigation for corruption, money laundering, and tax evasion related to a film about his father, though he has not been formally charged and has denied wrongdoing.
Political scientist Nathalie Tocci observed that the vision of Serbian youth aligns with movements in Albania, France, Belgium, Spain, and Italy. These protests, driven by demands for affordable housing, cost-of-living relief, and school investment, reflect a commitment to social and environmental justice. In France, the unrest began with students unhappy about university conditions but expanded to activate a broader segment of society critical of President Emmanuel Macron’s perceived neoliberalism. The protests were largely peaceful but met with police repression, including an arson attack that gutted the town hall of Limoges.
