Michigan Senate: El-Sayed Holds Early Lead Over Rogers
With record spending and a final surge of endorsements, the race to replace Gary Peters remains too close to call despite early Democratic gains.
By Luka Evans ·
Abdul El-Sayed held an early lead in the Michigan US Senate race on Tuesday as election officials began counting ballots. The contest between El-Sayed and Republican challenger Mike Rogers remained too close to call immediately after polls closed at 8 p.m. in most of the state. Early returns showed Democrats gaining ground in vote-rich Oakland and Kent County. The seat, currently held by retiring Democrat Gary Peters, is central to the national battle for Senate control in the final two years of President Donald Trump's term.
The race has become the most expensive in Michigan history. Disclosed spending reached over $270 million as of last month. That figure excludes additional dark money contributions. It is up from $217 million in the 2024 contest between Rogers and Elissa Slotkin. El-Sayed set a state fundraising record last quarter by raising $30.7 million. Rogers raised $9.7 million during the same period. El-Sayed saw a sharp spike in donations after his primary rival Haley Stevens endorsed Rogers. He reported raising $2.4 million on Sunday alone.
Outside groups favored the Republican candidate. GOP-aligned organizations spent nearly $95 million to support Rogers by mid-October. Groups supporting El-Sayed spent $42 million. Millions more in political advertising appeared in the final days of the campaign. Both former President Barack Obama and President Donald Trump headlined rallies in the state. Other surrogates included Vice President JD Vance, House Speaker Mike Johnson, Senator Bernie Sanders, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Rogers attempted to exploit divisions among Michigan Democrats that surfaced during the primary. Stevens' endorsement of Rogers in the final days shocked parts of the party. El-Sayed argued that his opponent and the Trump administration focused too much on his Muslim faith. At a Detroit rally on Monday night, he said, “They don’t want to talk about gas and groceries. They want to talk about me and my name and my faith.” Rogers countered at a Monday evening event in Rochester Hills. He described the race as a battle for the “heart and soul” of the nation. He expressed confidence that “we’re going to surprise some people” with a Republican victory.
Voters cited the economy as a top concern. High costs for groceries, gas, utilities, and healthcare dominated local conversations. Critics blamed the Iran war and federal tariffs for the affordability crisis. Rogers initially backed these administration actions but recently called for an end to the conflicts. El-Sayed, a progressive, urged the US to end support for Israel. He argued the federal government could use those funds to help Americans at home.
Lauren Slutsky, a 55-year-old lifelong Jewish Democrat in Huntington Woods, voted for Rogers. She said El-Sayed “hasn’t proven that he will stand against antisemitism and hate.” Steve Gold, also at that polling place, wore a “Jews for Abdul” shirt. He praised El-Sayed’s push for Medicare for All. He called it “shameful that the United States has not provided healthcare to everybody after 250 years.” Jen Mahaffy of Torch Lake Township voted for El-Sayed. She called Stevens' endorsement “very disappointing.” Mahaffy said El-Sayed approaches differences of opinion with humility.
Walker Darnell, a first-time voter from Michigan State University, supported Rogers due to religious preference. He said, “I respect all religions and faiths, (but) I just personally can’t get behind someone with a Muslim faith.” If elected, El-Sayed would become the first Muslim in the US Senate. The Cook Political Report shifted the race from a tossup to a lean Democrat on Monday. That move followed a nationwide referendum on Trump and a Republican-majority Congress.
El-Sayed entered the general election after a contentious primary. The campaign was defined by debates over the party's direction and US involvement in the Middle East. Rogers appealed directly to Michigan's Jewish population and other Democratic-leaning voters who had concerns about El-Sayed. The final tally will determine which party holds the seat in the coming congressional term.
