Yamal, Kane or Mbappe: Who Will Take the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

The 2026 Ballon d'Or will be decided in less than a day, with the winner set to be announced at a glitzy ceremony at the London Palladium. The debate over football's most prestigious individual prize has centred on three names: Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane.

Yamal, Spain's 19-year-old prodigy, and Mbappe, France's 2018 World Cup winner, have both publicly backed themselves for the award. England's Kane, who has been scoring freely, has been comparatively reserved about campaigning for it.

Forecasts are split. Avisia, a French data analysis and artificial intelligence firm, rates Yamal as the favourite, giving the Barcelona winger a 23 percent chance of winning the award for the 2025-26 season. Kane is second at 21 percent. Mbappe is third on 19 percent, level with Rodri, the 2024 winner. Lionel Messi completes the top five at 18 percent, with the chance of a record-extending ninth win. Avisia says it correctly identified the top five for the 2025 award, which Ousmane Dembele won. The bookmakers see it differently, making Kane the outright favourite at about 70 percent.

Players and former players have offered their own picks. Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone thinks his compatriot Messi, who recently retired from international duty, deserves the trophy. "After the World Cup, he played at his age… No doubt about it," Simeone said. Former Italy international Marco Materazzi agreed, saying Messi had shown at 38 that he is "in a different league".

Jude Bellingham, who is also on the shortlist, backed England captain Kane. "He works so hard for it, and he's a very honest and hard-working person," he said, adding that a Kane win is "definitely possible". Anthony Gordon, another England international, sided with his Barcelona teammate Yamal, calling him "on a whole other level". Mbappe has the support of Real Madrid teammate Aurelien Tchouameni, who described the Frenchman's season as incredible.

On individual numbers, Mbappe has a strong case. He was La Liga's top scorer with 25 goals and the Champions League's leading marksman with 15. He also took the World Cup Golden Boot and set a record for the most World Cup goals, with 12. Kane's claim is just as striking: his 73 goals last season are the most by any player since Messi scored 82 in 2011-12.

Trophies, however, complicate both cases. Mbappe won nothing with club or country. Kane won the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich but led England only to third place at the World Cup.

That is where Yamal stands out. He won the World Cup with Spain and La Liga with Barcelona, even though injury hampered his season and his personal statistics were not the best. History also favours major silverware: only four of the previous 19 Ballon d'Or winners failed to win the Champions League, World Cup, European Championship or Copa America in the year they were honoured.

A win for Yamal would make him the youngest recipient of the award. The current record belongs to Brazil's Ronaldo, who was 21 when he won in 1997.