Israelis Await Final Tally as Coalition Math Leaves Netanyahu in Charge

Israeli voters face a complex decision process as final election results are expected to confirm a hung parliament on Thursday. The outcome forces political parties to choose between forming a historic cross-religious alliance or aligning with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, a move that contradicts the campaign promises of many opposition leaders. Until a stable government is formed, Netanyahu remains in charge of the state.

Local media projections indicate that Netanyahu’s bloc holds 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. Opposition parties are projected to hold 48 seats, while Arab-led parties, which also campaigned to replace the prime minister, are expected to secure 19 seats. This distribution leaves no single bloc with the 61 seats required to form a majority government.

Approximately 500,000 absentee ballots are being counted from military personnel, diplomats, and individuals in hospitals and prisons. These ballots, due to be tallied by Thursday evening, are not expected to alter the projected seat distribution dramatically. The final count will determine if the projected numbers hold or if the margins shift slightly.

Gadi Eisenkot, the former military chief and chief rival to Netanyahu, addressed supporters early Wednesday. In his first public statement since the vote, he spoke of a government that serves all citizens and reflects the will of the people. He has stated he is open to working with Arab-led parties to reach the necessary majority, despite not explicitly mentioning this prospect in his initial address to supporters.

The Joint List, one of the major Arab parties, noted the strong voter turnout among Arab citizens who broke long-standing vows of abstention. The party described the election result as a show of strength and said it is open to political cooperation. Small rallies took place overnight in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem to support a coalition that includes these parties, a structure not seen since a brief arrangement in 2021.

Netanyahu’s Likud party has accused Arab-led parties of stealing the election, requesting an investigation by the election committee. The party did not provide specific evidence for its claims. The election committee stated that the number of reported irregularities in the vote was low.

President Yitzhak Hertzog will task a figure with forming the next government next week. Traditionally, this role goes to the leader of the party with the most votes, but it is not a strict requirement. Both Hertzog and Eisenkot have signaled a desire to avoid a new election, which could occur early next year if coalition talks fail.

The political landscape is complicated by several pressing issues, including the exemption of the fast-growing ultra-Orthodox population from compulsory military service. This exemption is contentious in a country where many families have lost children in three years of inconclusive wars. Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister, faces corruption allegations and accusations that he delayed hostage deals for political gain.

International pressure is also mounting due to widespread criticism of the treatment of Palestinians in Gaza and growing violence by Jewish settlers in the West Bank. For Arab citizens, who make up 20 percent of the population, the election results offer cautious hope. Brosli Elias, a resident of Nazareth, expressed the desire for government representation that brings rights to his community.

External threats add to the uncertainty. The Trump administration has spoken of new strikes against Iran after the midterm elections on November 3. Experts suggest Netanyahu could use the prospect of renewed war to press for a unity government. Such a move could delay a public inquiry into the security failures that led to the Hamas-led assault on October 7, 2023.