Over 430,000 Americans in Canada Face Midterm Vote With 10% Turnout Odds
Expat participation in U.S. elections remains low despite a high-stakes contest that could shift congressional control.
By Luka Evans ·
The Federal Voting Assistance Program estimates that more than 430,000 U.S. citizens are eligible to vote in Canada, yet historical data suggests a low likelihood they will cast ballots. In the 2024 general election, only about 10 percent of Americans living in Canada voted, compared to a domestic voting rate of 76 percent. The overall turnout for all eligible overseas U.S. citizens was estimated at 11 percent.
Americans will head to the polls on Nov. 3 for midterm elections that could allow Democrats to seize control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Gaining control of one or both chambers could alter the path of President Donald Trump’s presidency, including the possibility of new impeachment proceedings and investigations of key allies.
Tammy Wilsker Mermelstein, a Texas voter who moved to the Greater Toronto Area last year, will vote from Canada for the first time. She said it is important for people to vote this year because Texas is a competitive state. “Texas has not elected a Democrat in high office for at least two decades, probably longer, and this is the first solid chance,” she said.
Georganne Burke, chapter lead for Republicans Overseas in Canada, described the past year as contentious due to trade tensions between the two governments. Burke, a dual citizen who moved back to the U.S. a few months ago, estimates a three-to-one Democrat to Republican ratio among American expats in Canada. She said Republicans are motivated to vote but remain quiet because they fear an unfriendly reception.
Kathryn Sikkink, a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School, noted that participation abroad is low partly because some citizens find the process difficult or do not realize they are eligible. The U.S. Department of State allows citizens to get absentee ballots by mail, email, or fax, though options vary by state. Most citizens can vote for federal office candidates, while some states allow voting for local and state offices.
The trade war between the U.S. and Canada has become a leading issue in some key states. President Trump signed an order to rename Lake Ontario as Lake America and imposed 50 percent tariffs on an array of Canadian goods after negotiations fell apart in August. Ottawa responded with retaliatory duties a few weeks later. Jessica Matwick, a dual citizen in Ottawa, said the attacks on Canadian sovereignty are actions she cannot remain silent about.
Cody Littlefield, a California voter living in Calgary, said he tries to vote in every election to send a message that current events are not acceptable. He and his family may eventually move back to the U.S. Littlefield noted that while some expats do not care about domestic issues, foreign policy still affects them.
